半岛体育-瑞士队少胜一阵，赢得晋级机会

　　Leaders 3

　　Storm clouds and silver linings

　　阴云密布中还有一线生机

　　How to turn a chaotic election result into a better Brexit

　　一场混乱的选举或许可以成为更好脱欧方案的契机

　　Britain’s hung parliament presents an opportunity to change the course of exit negotiations

　　英国悬浮议会为改变脱欧谈判进程带来一丝转机

　　THERESA MAY called a snap election two months ago to build a “strong and stable” government. How those words will haunt her. On June 8th voters decided that, rather than transform her small majority into a thumping one, they would remove it altogether. The result is a country in an even deeper mess. Mrs May is gravely wounded but staggering on. If and when she goes, yet another election may follow—and its plausible winner would be Jeremy Corbyn, of Labour’s far-left fringe. On the eve of the Brexit referendum’s first anniversary, the chaos it has unleashed rumbles on unabated.

　　两个月前，为瑞士队少胜一阵，赢得晋级机会了建立一个强大而稳定的政府，特蕾莎·梅宣布提前举行大选。然而，“强大而稳定”这个词将成为她挥之不去的阿喀琉斯之踵。6月8日，选民给了她答案，特蕾莎·梅不仅没有能将优势从微弱多数变为一场大胜，转眼之间反而陷入极大的被动。这一结果使得这个国家陷入更加深重的混乱之中。尽管深受打击，但她仍在蹒跚前进。然而，如果她引咎自责，届时另一场大选将不可避免，而那场大选的获胜者很可能是工党极左翼政客杰里米·科尔宾。时值脱欧公投1周年之际，公投所带来的混乱局面依然没有改善的迹象。

　　With negotiations due to begin in Brussels in days, the circumstances could hardly be less promising. Yet the electoral upset has thrown up a chance for Britain and the European Union to forge a better deal than the one which looked likely a week ago. Because Mrs May’s drastic “hard Brexit” has been rejected by voters, the question of what replaces it is back in play.

　　脱欧谈判将于近期在布鲁塞尔举行，目前不利局势已经坏得不能再坏了。不过，竞选失利却为英国和欧盟提供了一个契机，相比上周，双方达成一个更理性协议的可能性在增加。因为特蕾莎·梅偏激的“硬脱欧”政策遭到了选民们的否定，所以替代她脱欧策略的议题再次回到了公共讨论范围内。

　　That rejection has at least made clear what Brexit does not mean. Mrs May planned both to end the free movement of people between Britain and the EU and to slash overall net migration by nearly two-thirds. She ruled out membership of the single market and customs union. Worst of all was her dictum that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, which threatened to crash Britain out of the EU if Brussels failed to make a good enough offer. Many factors were to blame for the Tories’ failure, not least an insipid campaign. But big boosts for Labour in Remain-voting areas suggest that Brexit motivated many; we calculate that it was responsible for about half the Tory swing to Labour. Mrs May beseeched voters to endorse her extreme approach. Voters have delivered their verdict and it is damning.

　　选民的决定至少清晰表明，脱欧并不意味着要全面与欧盟切割。特蕾莎·梅曾计划禁止欧洲与英国之间人员的双向自由流动，并将净移民人数削减近三分之二。她还主张退出单一市场和关税联盟。最为糟糕的是她还奉行“不达成协议总比达成坏的协议要好”这一理念，威胁欧盟如果不能提供足够优惠的条件，英国将强行脱欧。导致保守党失败的原因有许多，最让人诟病的是他们的竞选活动缺乏力度和投入。工党在留欧地区斩获了更多席位，脱欧问题是主要原因。据我们测算，保守党丢掉的席位中，有将近一半送给了工党阵营。特蕾莎·梅恳求选民支持她极端的脱欧政策，而选民们则有不同的看法，这给保守党带来了灾难性的打击。

　　Since the government lacks a majority, deciding what Brexit means will fall to Parliament, as it always should have done. The close election merely underlines the need to find an approach that reflects the close referendum. Moderate Tories, including Philip Hammond, the chancellor, and Ruth Davidson, who led the party to success in Scotland, are speaking up for an exit that keeps Britain open to trade and migration—provoking fury among some hardline Brexiteers. Others are mellowing for fear of losing their seats, following the loss of solid Tory constituencies like Kensington.

　　由于大选后没有产生绝对多数，按照惯例，脱欧将由议会来主导，一切原本就应该如此。这次势均力敌的大选只是再次证明，需要找到一种折中的方式来体现脱欧公投中分歧各方的主张。包括财政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德在内的温和派保守党人和领导保守党在苏格兰获胜的鲁斯·戴维森都主张，在脱欧的同时保持贸易和移民的开放，这种观点惹恼了一些脱欧强硬派。在失去肯辛顿这样坚定支持保守党的选区后，其他保守党党人都开始担心失去自己的席位，因此对脱欧的态度开始软化。

　　The Democratic Unionists, a Northern Irish party on which the government will depend in key votes, want to minimise problems at the border with the republic, which may mean staying in the customs union. The business lobby, previously frozen out by Mrs May along with everyone else, is arguing for a softer exit, too. The upheaval empowers civil servants, who privately favour the least-disruptive Brexit possible.

　　当前，对于政府来说，北爱尔兰民主统一党的票仓就至关重要，他们主张尽可能减少对跨境交流的影响，这就意味着，他们主张保留关税联盟席位。之前被特蕾莎·梅拒之门外的商业游说团和首相圈子之外的很多人也支持更为温和的脱欧方式。这种动荡让公务员们获得表述自己观点的权利，他们私下都希望能将脱欧所带来的危害最小化。

　　Negotiations will be hamstrung by the government’s precariousness. The talks will last until late 2018, perhaps beyond Mrs May’s sell-by date. So Britain needs to reach a cross-party agreement on the basic principles of Brexit, and then find a way to make the consensus stick, whoever is in power. Several senior Tories, as well as the Liberal Democrats, have proposed a commission to draw up a negotiating mandate, rather as the EU government have for the European Commission. The main obstacle is Labour, which sees no reason to make life easier for the Tories. Yet such a commission may be in its interest. Nailing down the principles of Brexit now would save it from having the argument later in office; Mr Corbyn, who has never shown much interest in the subject, would be free to focus on his revolution at home.

　　由于政府的不稳定性，脱欧谈判将受到影响。脱欧谈判将会持续到2018年下半年，也许会拖到特蕾莎·梅的任期之后。因此各党之间就需要就脱欧的一些基本原则达成一致，并找到一个普遍认同的脱欧方式，以后不论哪个党派上台执政，该方案都能得到执行。少数资深保守党党员和自由民主党提议，仿效欧盟各国政府对欧洲委员会的运作方式，成立一个委员会来为政府起草和协商授权令，而主要阻碍在于工党，尽管成立委员会也符合他们自己的利益，但是让现任政府顺风顺水也不是他们的职责所在。敲定脱欧的基本原则能够避免给下届政府留下纠纷的种子瑞士队少胜一阵，赢得晋级机会；科尔宾对脱欧话题向来兴趣缺缺，如果达成此类协议，他如果当选就能集中精力实施自己的国内改革了。

　　The EU can improve the chances of a sensible outcome. It does not want Britain to emerge with a better deal than it had as a member, in case that gives ideas to Eurosceptics in other countries. But the risk of anyone envying Britain in its current lunatic state is slight. The EU should recognise that there remains a grave risk of “no deal”, and do what it can to avert that outcome, which would be catastrophic for Britain and very bad for everyone else. There have been encouraging comments from Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, and Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, that Britain would be welcome back if Brexit were reversed. But that is still unlikely; the focus should be on limiting Brexit’s damage.

　　而欧盟也能推动实现更加理性的成果。欧盟不希望退欧协议给予英国的待遇超过欧盟成员国，因为这样会给其他国家的疑欧派更多把柄。不过目前应该没有其他国家会羡慕英国当前的糟糕状态。但欧盟也应该认识到极有可能和英国无法达成一个双方都接受的协议，并尽可能避免这种结果，因为这种局面不仅对英国是灾难性的，对于所有国家也是百害无一利。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和德国财政部长沃尔夫冈·朔伊布勒都发表了积极的言论，他们说如果停止脱欧，他们很欢迎英国回到欧盟大家庭中来。但那种情形可能性很小，现在重点是如何降低英国脱欧所带来的损失。

　　Meeting half way

　　双方都需要让步

　　Reaching a good deal will require time. So both sides should agree on a long transition, in which Britain lives under today’s terms until a trade agreement is struck. It will also require flexibility. The issue most likely to scupper a mutually beneficial deal is freedom of movement. Britain cannot expect special treatment, but offering it a minor get-out, of the sort already enjoyed by countries such as Norway and Switzerland, would allow a better single-market deal for all. If European leaders refuse any compromise, they will make their own citizens poorer. That is no way to build support for the principle of free movement.

　　达成一个合适的协议需要时间。因此双方应同时意识到这是一个漫长的转型，英国需要保留现状，直至达成新的贸易协议。新的贸易协定需要有很大的灵活性，最可能让一个互惠协议搁置的问题是人员自由流动。英国不能奢望有享受特殊待遇，但是给英国有限的脱身方案有助于达成一个对双方都有好处的单一市场协议，挪威和瑞士就是榜样。如果欧洲领导人们拒绝让步，欧洲人民会更加贫困。人员自由流动协议也就无从谈起。

　　Britain’s position is appallingly weak. The negotiations are as likely as ever to blow up before they get going. But the chaos in Westminster presents a rare opportunity to change the course of Brexit. Both sides should seize it.

　　英国处于非常不利的境地。谈判可能还未开始注定要破裂。但英国政局动荡提供了一个改变英国脱欧进程的千载难逢机会。双方都应该抓住这个机会。

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